The Great Wine Glut: Why There's Too Much Wine in the World and How Drinkers Can Capitalise

There is more wine in Australia right now than anyone knows what to do with. Not metaphorically, I mean literally! As of 30 June 2025, the national inventory sat at 2.06 billion litres, with roughly 262 million litres of that classed as genuine excess wine above and beyond what a balanced market would hold.

For growers, that number is a crisis. For anyone who enjoys drinking wine, it is the best buying opportunity in a generation.

Here's what's happening, why it happened, and how to make it work for your cellar.

How big is the glut, really?

The Australian numbers are stark. According to Wine Australia's Production, Sales and Inventory Report, in 2024–25 the country produced 1.13 billion litres of wine while selling 1.08 billion — a surplus of around 52 million litres, or six million cases, in a single year. That means Production outstripped sales for the first time in three years.

The measure the industry watches most closely is the stock-to-sales ratio: how many years of sales are sitting in tank and barrel. It has climbed to 1.9, about 15% above the long-term average of 1.66. In plain terms, Australia is holding close to two years' worth of wine.

Globally, the picture is more nuanced. The International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV) put 2025 world production at 227 million hectolitres. This is the third consecutive low year, and 9.4% below the five-year average. However consumption, meanwhile, fell 2.7% to 208 million hectolitres, the lowest level recorded since 1961.

Read those two numbers together and you get the whole story. The world is making less wine than it has in years yet this is still making more than it drinks.

Why did this happen?

There is no single villain here. Four pressures arrived at once.

1. People are simply drinking less

This is the big one, and it is structural rather than cyclical. Younger drinkers are consuming less alcohol than any generation before them. Moderation, health awareness, no & low-alcohol alternatives, and a general shift from "everyday bottle" to "occasional treat" have all eaten into volume. Global consumption has been sliding for the better part of a decade, and nothing in the data suggests it is about to snap back.

2. The China shock

Australian wine was hit harder than most. When tariffs closed off the Chinese market in 2020, an entire export channel. This was one that had absorbed enormous volumes of premium red, it vanished almost overnight. Trade has since partially reopened, but the recovery has been muted. The value of Aussie wine exports to China fell 17% in 2025 to A$755 million, and China now takes less than half the volume it did at its 2017–18 peak. Chinese tastes have also moved toward whites and lighter styles, which does little for a country holding a mountain of Shiraz.

3. Australia planted for a boom that ended

Around 75% of Australia's grapes are grown in the warm, irrigated inland regions of the south-east — the Riverland, Riverina and Murray Darling. Those regions were planted heavily to red varieties during the export boom. That fruit now has nowhere to go.

The result is brutal economics. Indicative prices for Riverland Shiraz in the 2026 vintage have been reported at A$80–120 per tonne, against production costs above A$350 per tonne. Growers are losing money on every tonne they pick. Many are not picking at all, and thousands of hectares of vines are being pulled out. The Riverina alone is removing around 5,000 hectares.

4. Costs went up while returns went down

Water, labour, fuel, glass, freight and interest all rose sharply while grape prices did the opposite. The national average purchase price for winegrapes fell another 6% in 2026, to A$570 per tonne. As Wine Australia's market insights manager Peter Bailey put it, "There has been no improvement in grape prices, which suggests that demand is still very soft."

The part worth saying plainly

Before we get to the bargains: this is a genuine hardship for a lot of families. Multi-generational growing regions are being described by their own communities as facing a full-blown economic emergency. Vines that took decades to establish are being bulldozed because harvesting them costs more than the fruit is worth.

Drinkers benefiting from cheap wine and growers going broke are two sides of the same imbalance. That is worth knowing and it is an argument for buying thoughtfully rather than just cheaply. Where you spend actually matters right now!

How drinkers can capitalise

Here is the practical part. A surplus market rewards buyers who know where to look, and the opportunity is not where most people assume.

Trade up a tier, not down

The instinct in a glut is to hunt for the cheapest bottle on the shelf. That is the wrong move. The sub-$10 category is being squeezed and quality there is not improving. The real value is in the $25–60 band, where wines that were $50–90 a few years ago have quietly repositioned. Fruit that was destined for premium labels is now going into second labels and mid-tier bottlings. You are buying better winemaking, better vineyards and better fruit for the same money you spent three years ago.

In short: the same budget buys you a noticeably better bottle than it did in 2022. Take the upgrade rather than the discount.

Hunt back vintages and museum releases

With cellars full, producers are releasing older stock they would normally have held. That means aged wine at close to current-release prices. This is a rare thing. Back-vintage Shiraz, Cabernet and Barossa reds with five to ten years of bottle age already on them are exceptional value, and they need no patience from you. Check our Rare and back-vintage range for library releases as they come through.

Buy the cellar-worthy reds now

The oversupply is concentrated in exactly the styles that age best: Shiraz, Cabernet Sauvignon and Australian reds more broadly. These are structurally underpriced right now relative to their quality. If you have ever wanted to start a cellar, this is the moment. Buy young, cellar-worthy reds at a discount and drink them in ten years when the market has corrected.

Buy by the case

Case and dozen pricing has never been more generous, because moving volume is the industry's overriding priority. A mixed dozen is now the single most efficient way to buy, and it lets you take a punt on producers you don't know without much downside.

Look at large formats

Magnums and large-format bottles often carry a proportionally deeper discount in a soft market, because they are harder to shift. They also age more slowly and gracefully than standard bottles. So you get better cellaring and a better price at once.

Explore regions under pressure

Some of the most interesting value on the market is coming from the regions that got hit hardest. Wines from the inland regions and from smaller Australian producers looking to build direct relationships are punching well above their price. Browse our Australian wine range for the sharpest examples.

What not to expect

A little realism, so you buy well:

• Fine wine is not collapsing. The top end has stabilised in 2026, and some niches are ticking up again. If you are waiting for first-growth Bordeaux or cult Australian reds to go on sale, don't hold your breath.
• The cheapest tier isn't the story. Wines under $10 are struggling commercially but are not getting better. The glut is in volume wine; the opportunity is in mid-premium.
• Whites and lighter styles are less discounted. The surplus is overwhelmingly red. If anything, demand has moved toward white wine and rosé, so the discounts there are thinner.

The window is closing

This is the part most buyers are missing. The glut is a stock overhang, not a permanent condition and the supply pipeline behind it is being cut hard.

Australia's 2026 crush came in at 1.27 million tonnes, the smallest since 2000 and well below the ten-year average of 1.69 million tonnes. Red grapes alone fell 29%, accounting for 80% of the entire reduction. That single vintage represents roughly 33 million fewer cases of wine.

Add the thousands of hectares being permanently removed, and the arithmetic is straightforward. Today's surplus gets drunk, and the wine to replace it was never made. The OIV is already forecasting an easing of stock pressure globally as low production absorbs the excess.

Cheap, high-quality Australian red is a 2026–2027 phenomenon, not a new normal. Buy accordingly.

The bottom line

The wine glut is a real crisis for the people who grow grapes, and a genuine, time-limited opportunity for the people who drink them. The smart play is not to buy cheaper it is to buy better for the same money, and to buy wines that will age while they are temporarily undervalued.

Browse our full wine range, or start with the Australian reds where the value is deepest right now. Fast, secure delivery Australia-wide.

FAQs

Why is there a wine glut in 2026?

Global wine consumption has fallen to its lowest level since 1961, while Australia in particular planted heavily to red varieties during an export boom that collapsed when Chinese tariffs hit in 2020. The result is a national inventory of around 2.06 billion litres, roughly 262 million litres more than a balanced market would hold.

Does the wine glut mean wine is getting cheaper?

In parts of the market, yes — but not evenly. The best value is in the $25–60 mid-premium band and in aged and back-vintage reds, where quality has risen sharply for the price. Fine wine at the top end has stabilised and is not discounting, and the sub-$10 tier hasn't improved.

Which wines are most affected by the oversupply?

Red wine, overwhelmingly and particularly Shiraz and Cabernet Sauvignon from Australia's warm inland regions. Red grape intake fell 29% in the 2026 vintage, making up 80% of the total reduction in the crush. Whites and rosé are far less oversupplied.

How long will the wine glut last?

Probably not long. Australia's 2026 harvest was the smallest since 2000, thousands of hectares of vines are being permanently removed, and the OIV expects global stock pressure to ease as low production draws down the surplus. Most analysts see this as a window of a year or two rather than a lasting shift.

Is it a good time to start a wine cellar?

It is arguably the best time in twenty years. The oversupply sits precisely in the age-worthy red styles, meaning cellar-worthy Shiraz and Cabernet are currently underpriced relative to quality. Buying young reds now and cellaring them is the clearest way to capitalise.